The "chū-ichi gap" (中1ギャップ): what the research institute found, and what to watch

The 中1ギャップ (chū-ichi gyappu, the "first-year junior-high gap") is a phrase Japanese parents hear often: the idea that something goes wrong when a child moves from 小6 (grade 6) to 中1 (the first year of junior high), and that bullying and school absence suddenly jump. The National Institute for Educational Policy Research (国立教育政策研究所, NIER), the ministry's research body, looked at the evidence in a leaflet titled 「中1ギャップ」の真実 (the truth about the 中1 gap). Its first line is blunt:

「中1ギャップ」という語に明確な定義はなく、その前提となっている事実認識（いじめ・不登校の急増）も客観的事実とは言い切れない。

(the term has no clear definition, and the facts it assumes, a sharp rise in bullying and absence, cannot be called objective facts).

This matters for a parent because the label points at the wrong moment. The leaflet's finding is that what shows up in 中1 has usually started earlier.

The numbers that started the phrase

The term came from the ministry's yearly survey of problem behaviour and school absence, read grade by grade. That survey records every child absent 30 or more days in the school year and sorts them by reason: illness, financial reasons, 不登校 (futōkō, school non-attendance) or other. The latest national figures, for the 2024 school year (令和6年度), published by MEXT:

Grade	Children counted as 不登校, 令和6年度
小1	8,738
小2	14,125
小3	19,460
小4	25,322
小5	31,979
小6	38,080
中1	58,736
中2	77,066
中3	80,464

The count rises with each grade, and the step from 小6 to 中1 is the largest. Followed as one year group, 36,588 children were counted in 小6 in 令和5年度, and 58,736 in the same year group's 中1 year, 令和6年度. Across all elementary and junior-high schools, 353,970 children were counted, the highest on record, though the ministry notes the rate of increase slowed.

Does absence really jump at 中1?

The leaflet's answer, from NIER's own 2012 analysis: less than it looks. The survey reported that only about 3 in 10 中1 不登校 pupils had also been counted in 小6, which reads as a threefold rise. NIER recounted the elementary years more widely, including absence for illness and days spent in the school nurse's room (保健室登校, hokenshitsu tōkō). Half of those 中1 pupils had already had the equivalent of 30 days' absence in some year from 小4 to 小6, and 75–80% had been often absent. On that basis the rise is about 1.3 times:

増加率は 1.3 倍前後（＝ 100 ÷ 75）となり、必ずしも急増とは言えません。

Put the other way: children with no visible absence, lateness or early leaving in elementary school who suddenly stop attending in 中1 are only about 20–25% of the 中1 total.

Does bullying jump at 中1?

Schools' own reports of bullying they recognised rise in 中1. But when NIER asked the children themselves, following one year group from 小4 to 中3 over six years and twelve surveys, the share who said they had been bullied was higher in elementary school than in junior high. The leaflet's conclusion is that the impression of a sudden rise comes from school counts, and that it is doubtful those counts show what is really happening.

Is fear of junior high the cause?

A popular idea was that worry about junior high makes children stop going, so junior-high teachers visit 小6 classes to show they are not scary. NIER surveyed every 小6 child in one prefecture in February 2010 and checked their attendance a year later. The children with the very highest worry scores did not become new 不登校 pupils at all. There were about as many new cases among children with low worry, and many among those with middling worry. The leaflet calls the hypothesis unsound and says the transition visits should be reviewed for what they are for.

What schools say they saw

In the 令和6年度 survey, the facts schools most often recorded about elementary and junior-high pupils counted as 不登校 were: consultations about having no energy for school life (30.1%), about an off-balance daily rhythm (25.0%), about anxiety or low mood (24.3%), and signs of falling behind or often missing homework (15.6%). These are what schools noticed, not causes, and a child can show none of them.

What this means for your child

The leaflet's own advice is to stop using the label and look at what is actually happening:

便利な用語を用いることで、目の前で起きている問題を理解した気になってはなりません。

It also says the gap is made, and can be closed, by school staff:

ギャップを作りだしているのも、それを埋めることができるのも教職員

For a family, the leaflet's figures point to 小4–小6 as the years to watch, not the first week of 中1.

What to do now

• In 小4–小6, keep a simple record of absences, late arrivals, early pick-ups and days in the 保健室. The leaflet counts all of them, not only days marked 不登校.
• If the days add up, raise it with the 担任 (tannin, homeroom teacher) that year. Do not wait for junior high.
• In 小6, ask the elementary school what it passes to the junior high about your child, and ask the junior high, at its information session, how it works with the elementary schools in its district.
• In 中1, at the first 個人面談 (kojin mendan, one-to-one teacher meeting), tell the new 担任 anything the elementary school knew.
• If your child is already missing school, see when a child stops going to school and sleep and the daily rhythm by age.